Good morning.

The emergence of a vaccine is making habitually cautious CFOs more optimistic about the outlook for the U.S. economy next year. That’s my reading of Deloitte’s quarterly CFO Signals survey—the most reliable tracking of CFO sentiment I know of.

The percentage of CFOs rating the North American economy as “good” or “very good” rose to 18% in the latest survey from 7% a quarter earlier. That puts North America ahead of Europe, where only 5% of respondents rate the current economy as “good” or “very good,” but well behind China, where 47% see it as “good” or “very good.”

Looking a year out, a full 59% of CFOs expect the U.S. economy to be better. A majority (58%) expect the S&P 500 will be higher by the end of next year, and a similar majority (60%) believe the ten-year bond yield will stay below 2%.

A majority of the CFOs also are hopeful that a new administration in the U.S. will lead to a more rigorous response to the pandemic, a new stimulus package, and a bipartisan infrastructure bill. Let’s hope they are right, on all counts. You can read the full report later this morning here.

More news below.

Alan Murray

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